A new report from the University of
Warwick predicts continued low unemployment and up to two
million more jobs for the UK by 2010.
The report from the university's Institute
for Employment Research 'Projections of Occupations and
Qualifications, 2000/2001' reckons that:
- Between 1999 and 2010 there are
expected to be over 2 million more jobs.
- The level of unemployment is expected
to remain stable at historically low levels.
- The long-term decline in employment in
manufacturing and the primary sector (agriculture, mining
and utilities) is expected to continue, with a loss of
around 750,000 jobs between 1999 and 2010.
- Services are projected to be the main
source of extra jobs, with increases in distribution, hotels
and catering , business and miscellaneous services, health
and education services.
- Just over two-thirds of all the
additional jobs are expected to be taken by women.
- Part-time employment is expected to
account for most of the increase in total employment
although there is some recovery in the number of full-time
- The share of self-employment is
expected to decline over the next decade.
Employment increases are anticipated for:
- professional occupations – 900,000
- associate professional & technical
occupations - 800,000 jobs
- personal service occupations –
- sales occupations - 180,000 jobs.
Declining employment is predicted for:
- skilled trades occupations – 200,000
- process, plant and machine operatives
– 100,000 job losses
- elementary occupations – 200,000 job
The report also notes the importance of
'replacement demands' as well as net changes. For all
occupations, replacement demand (including replacing retirees)
is over 5 times larger than expansion demand. Between
1999 and 2010 there is expected to be a net requirement of 13.5
million job openings. Retirements are the principal component in
The report was compiled as part of a joint
project between Warwick's Institute for Employment Research and
Cambridge Econometrics. It is part of a programme carried out on
behalf of the Department for Education & Employment (DfEE).
The report is available on the Skillsbase