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Warwick Uni Predicts More Jobs Ahead

A new report from the University of Warwick predicts continued low unemployment and up to two million more jobs for the UK by 2010.

The report from the university's Institute for Employment Research 'Projections of Occupations and Qualifications, 2000/2001' reckons that:

  • Between 1999 and 2010 there are expected to be over 2 million more jobs.
  • The level of unemployment is expected to remain stable at historically low levels.
  • The long-term decline in employment in manufacturing and the primary sector (agriculture, mining and utilities) is expected to continue, with a loss of around 750,000 jobs between 1999 and 2010.
  • Services are projected to be the main source of extra jobs, with increases in distribution, hotels and catering , business and miscellaneous services, health and education services.
  • Just over two-thirds of all the additional jobs are expected to be taken by women.
  • Part-time employment is expected to account for most of the increase in total employment although there is some recovery in the number of full-time jobs.
  • The share of self-employment is expected to decline over the next decade.

Employment increases are anticipated for:

  • professional occupations 900,000 jobs
  • associate professional & technical occupations - 800,000 jobs
  • personal service occupations 650,000 jobs
  • sales occupations - 180,000 jobs.

Declining employment is predicted for:

  • skilled trades occupations 200,000 job losses
  • process, plant and machine operatives 100,000 job losses
  • elementary occupations 200,000 job losses.

The report also notes the importance of 'replacement demands' as well as net changes. For all occupations, replacement demand (including replacing retirees) is over 5 times larger than expansion demand. Between
1999 and 2010 there is expected to be a net requirement of 13.5 million job openings. Retirements are the principal component in this estimate.

The report was compiled as part of a joint project between Warwick's Institute for Employment Research and Cambridge Econometrics. It is part of a programme carried out on behalf of the Department for Education & Employment (DfEE).

The report is available on the Skillsbase website.

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CWN / Education / University of Warwick / 25 Apr 01
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